Baseball

[Hawkeye]

Goin to the Jays game today w00t!

Anyways I think the jays have such well rounded hitting, I think they can out hit any team out there as long as towers isnt pitching ;-)

And besides Towers our bullpen is fantastic Bj Ryan has 7 saves already and Halladay rocks always :D And lilly is probably one of the most under rated left handers out there, hes also got some wicked stuff.

Molina is also one of the best catchers out there right now hes just also the slowest catcher out there :( But he hits the ball big.

I think the reason why our offense is so potent is because we have alot of solid hitters and we also have a wack of guys that know how to hit the ball into play and get on base. The Jays are always gettin 2-3 run shots, and thats how you win ball games.

Im saying jays cruise into the playoffs :cool:

[4matic]

detroit > jays

[stormFury]

The expos were smart to get out of canada.

[Doc Wattson]

Blue Jays are one of the msot over rated teams going into this season and won't even be close to the playoffs by the end of the season.

-Gary-

[stormFury]

The Savages will pick it up and at least get the wild card.

[fodough]

Blue Jays are one of the msot over rated teams going into this season and won't even be close to the playoffs by the end of the season.
-Gary-

i disagree. i think the jays have a good thing going. they are finally spending the money that their division commands. aj burnett maybe a bust but halladay, bj ryan, overbay, and vernon wells are the real deal.



and oh yes. i put lyle overbay in there.

[praNx]

how about troy glaus he's been doing very well with the hr's.

[Doc Wattson]

they are finally spending the money that their division commands. aj burnett maybe a bust but halladay, bj ryan, overbay, and vernon wells are the real deal.

They aren't spending money wisely. Halladay and Wells aren't spending money, they aren't had them. I know wells is from their minor leagues system and I beleive Halladay is but not 100% sure. THey spent way to much on both BJ and Burnett. BJ is doing well but he still isn't worth the money he is getting and that will be more true towards the end of the contract. Overbay is doing better then I thought he would be but he was a first half player last year and isn't a long term answer.

The Blue jays don't have the depth to contend and spent long term money on short term answers. They are gonna pay for it a few years from now.

-Gary-

[Hawkeye]

In tonights Jays 5-1 win Halladay pitches 9 innings strong and gives up 4 Hits. With 6 SO...

Rios hit a 2 run HR; and is a strong batter just from the standpoint that he can get on base consistantly, and has some speed.
Molina, Wells, Glaus, Overbay, Hillenbrand... all HR threats .... (and sometimes Hinske too)
Hill and Adams could use some work on their defense and batting, but will come along with all the talent surrouding them. And our OF roster is awsome anyway you look at it.

In Fielding is also quite strong with 3 DPs on the night. I feel that they may NOT be overestimated.

[Doc Wattson]

Blue Jays rank first in OPS. No way they can keep that up. Frank Catalanotto is over 200 OPS above his career average. Troy Glaus is over 100 OPS points above his career average. Alex Rios is young and could be a diamond in the rough but he was never a top prospect and to think he can keep up a line of .384/.394/.717 for an OPS of 1.111 would be crazy, espeically sicne he has never shown he can draw a walk. Shea Hillenbrand is hitting a over 100 OPS points over his career average OPS. No way those players keep it up.

Hinske has power? He has only once hit above 15 HRs, his rookie year he had 24. This year he has one HR. Where is his power?

Lyle Overbay has a 441 SLG%, right in line with his career average making him a at best average 1st baseman.

Veron Wells is the only true offensive power house on the team and the only player they can count on to maintain his all star caliber season.

And how has this great pitching done. They are bottom 10 in the league in team ERA and OPS against. Unlike the offense that as played above their heads the pitching has played how they should. Halladay is good, BJ has done great, Burnett is on teh DL, Lilly walks to many, Towers just sucks, and Chacin is having sophmore struggles. This is their staff right now and it's bottom 10 in baseball.

The Blue Jays aren't in the playoffs as we speak. What is gonna happen when their offense comes down to earth? I predict a slightly above 500 team with contracts that are gonna hinder them a few years from now.

Enjoy them while you can, by the end of the season you will be pissed.

-Gary-

[Hawkeye]

What about molina? is he no good too? :rolleyes:

[stormFury]

Dammit the Savages lost 4-3! To the Royals! COME ON

[Doc Wattson]

Molina isn't bad. He is hitting .277 with a .318 OB% and .458 SLG%. Not elite but firmly in that 2nd tier of catcher. Just like his team the Blue Jays, not elite but firmly in the 2nd tier of baseball teams.

With an over achiving offense you have the 13th best record in baseball, 6th best in the AL, and 3rd place in the east. The Blue Jays are where they should be, slightly above average. I don't see how you can this excited over a team that has to over achive to be consider above average. This is as good as this year is gonne get for them, enjoy it while you can.

-Gary-

[Hawkeye]

2nd tier teams can win the WorldSeries... its happened

[Doc Wattson]

not if they don't make the playoffs ;)

-Gary-

[SkifF]

Not making the playoffs, and losing the first round to the Red Sox is about the same thing.

So the Yankee's won't fare much better :D

[Doc Wattson]

I'll get you SkifF!!!

-Gary-

[Doc Wattson]

Thought some of you would like to read the scouting reports on a few Blue Jays. These are from Baseball Prospectus with predicted stats. One of teh founding members of Baseball Prospectus is now the Sssistant GM for the Blue Jays so not only do they know baseball but they have ties to the Blue Jays orginazations.

Three stats you might not know:

EQA is a stat that represents how valuable a hitter in a format that is simular to batting average. .270 is an average hitter, 300 is all star, etc.

VORP is Value Over Replacment players. For hitters it also represents how many runs a player contributes to a team over a replacment player, with roughly 10 runs equally one win over five hunder. If a player has a 40 VORP that means if the rest of the team was league average the team would have a record of

Basically EQA is metric for how good a hitter is per PA, VORP is how much does a player help a team over a year when you factor in total projected playing time and the average production from someone at their position. A player at 2nd base will get a higher VORP over another player at 1st base if they both have the same offensive numbers. Also two equal bats at the some position but with one player having projected lower PA due to injuries or platoons will lead to a lower VORP of the two.

The third is Defense. Sure you know what defense is but this is a number rating for it. Just like VORP the defense number represent how many runs this players defense prevents over a year compaired to the average player at their position. A score of 10 means they prevented 10 runs, a score of -10 means they gave up 10 more runs.

Blue Jays' Lineup:

A. Rios - BA/OB/SLG: .278/.322/.433 EQA: .255 VORP: -3.4 Age: 25 D: RF 10

Rios is a plus defender with an above average arm. perfecly well-suited for a job in center, but that belongs to Veron Wells. He's still the same toolsy player he's always been, but it hasn't translated to the kind of production a competitive team needs from a starting right fielder. Rios is still young (And immature, as his September benching for lackadaisical play suggests), and is just reaching the age that most players can take a big step forward. But barring the kind of breakout the Jays need from him at the plate, he's more valuable to a team in need of a center feilder.

F. Catalanotto - BA/OB/SLG: .286/.343/.425 EQA: .261 VORP: 7.4 Age: 32 D: LF 0

The Jays gave Catalanotoot a two year, $5.4 million contract extension before the 2005 season, mixed him with Reed Johnson, and got league average production out of their left fielders. Catalanotto isn't a bad hitter, but as a corner outfielder who requires an additional roster spot to be burned on a platoon parter, he's a player who comes with the sxtra little bit of cost. Catalanotto is another example of the Jays carrying around too many adequate hitters without having a real bopper to push these guys around the bases.

V. Wells - BA/OB/SLG: .286/.343/.498 EQA: .280 VORP: 34.3 Age: 27 D: CF 11

Since 2003, Wells has appeared to be on the cusp of greatness. The next Andruw Jones. The kind of player who hits 35-50 home runs a season while providing great defense in center field. You know, Willie Mays. Instead, Wells got impatient at the plate, added only two extra base hits over his 2004 season, despite more then twenty extra games played and 88 more PAs. His ISO was basically the same across the last two seasons, but by posting his worstbatting average since his 1999 cup of coffee, Wells is starting to look more and more like the kind of player who has to hit .300 to be an MVP-caliber player. He's heading into the tradional peak seasons and, after two years of being stalled as a hitter, 2003 seems more and more like a one-time season.

T. Glaus - BA/OB/SLG: ..269/.369/.514 EQA: .299 VORP: 36.9 Age: 29 D: 3rd -9

A risky signing, but give the D-Backs credit: THey kept him on teh field, and made the first year of his deal look like it wasn't a bad move. Then, Jeff Moorad and company soured on his work habits, making it blatantly obvious that they wanted to trade him. Public questioning of a player's work ethic right before trying to unload him probably isn't the best way to get full value in return, but then did so by getting defensive stud Orlando Hudson and a passable closer, Miguel Batista, from Toronto, while unloading Glaus's salart on a suddenly spendthrift Blue Jays. Unfortunately for Glause, with winter in Toronto leasting until May, his wife might not be able to maintain her equestrain hobby; no wonder management said "neigh" to retaining him.

E. Hinske - BA/OB/SLG: .258/.335/.430 EQA: .260 VORP: 7.4 Age: 28 D: 1st -1

The Jays signed HInske to a five year, $14.75 million deal after his award-winning 2002 rookie season, intending to lock up a quality young player through his arbitration years and giving the club a top talent at a premium price. This gamble worked out well with Vernon Wells, who signed a nearly identical contract, but Hinske is a reminder that even the bestlaid plans can go horribly awary. At least Hinske repeated his merely disapointing 2003 rather than his abysmal 2004, but he's playing first instead of third. That kind of production from a key offensive position isn't giving to make the Jays contenders any time soon. Hinske continued inability to hit southpaws may mean his future lies as a platoon player. The acquisition of Overbay might push him back to third, to DH, or to somebody the Jays pay to take him off of their hands.

S. Hillenbrand - BA/OB/SLG: .287/.324/.446 EQA: .258 VORP: 11.6 Age: 30 D: 1st 0

Hillenbrand is the kind of player that deceives mediocre teams into thinking they're getting accepable production from a key offensive position. In three of the past four seasons Hillenbrand started off hot early only to regress to .280/.320/.430 for the rest of the season. Only the Red Sox took advantage of Hillenbrand's batting average-inflated line by trading him at the peak of his value. Now that the Jays have brought in Lyle Overbay, Hillenbrand may be dealt by the time you read this - but hopefully not to a team looking for a third baseman. Being able to stand near third base might raise Hillenbrand's value, but he's never been a slick fielder at the hot corner.

L. Overbay - BA/OB/SLG: .280/.363/.458 EQA: .279 VORP: 17.7 Age: 29 D: 1st 8

Melvin's mastery of knowing when to say "let's make a deal" strikes again, and overbay's been sent to the Blue Jays, who apparently wanted an Olerud fix so bad they were willing to settle for Olerud Lite. The problem that Toronto will have to come to terms with is that they've brought him hoping he'll build on what he did in 2004, when he's already into the downslope of what will only be an adwquate sort of career. He's a nice player, but carrying him forces you ro rely on getting serious power from other places in your lineup

B. Molina - BA/OB/SLG: .270/.309/.404 EQA: .248 VORP: 8.3 Age: 31 D: C 0

Tossed in those extra 20 points of batting average and 40 points of slugging by mutilating left-handers at a 1.077 OPS clip. That helped make Molina the sixth most valuable catcher in baseball as measured by VORP (23.6). That was way over his 90th percentile PETCO forecast, time about as nicely as possible for an imminent free agent. Not offered arbitration and still teamless, he'll no doupt make top dollar somewhere, but he's not a young player, and his glovework is more reputation then results. Let the buyer beware.

R. Adams - BA/OB/SLG: .267/.332/.391 EQA: .250 VORP: 16.9 Age: 25 D: SS -9

Adams would have been a good shortstop in the 1980s, when shortstops weren't expected to hit, or else he would be a decent starter today for a team with several solid bats already in place. There isn't any power explotion down the road in Toronto and Adams below-average arm will continue to provoke questions about his defense. The Blue Jays need to realize they only have nine spots in their lineup and players like Adams can plug a hole but alo take away an opportunity to play an above-average hitter. If your lineup is filled with nine of these guys you'll end up with 81 wins and a 15 in the Games Back column. after Adam's hot 2004 cup of coffee, Toronto can't be blamed for giving him a long leash, but he should be regarded with a wary eye from now on.

A. Hill - BA/OB/SLG: .270/.331/.400 EQA: .250 VORP: 12.3 Age: 24 D: 2nd 4

After a torrid start to his big league career (while substituting for an injuried Corey Koskie), Hill struggled badly in the second half (.221/.299/.308), and failed to display the home run power the Blue Jays expected him to develop. Hill's arm allows him to play any infield position, but there are concerns about his range at short, making it likely that he'll end up at second. There, his strike zone judgement and moderate power should be assests. Ricciardi is said to have a special place in his lineup for Hill. Amidst the team's glu of infielders, he may yet offer them the best combination of offense, defence, and expense.

So that is the Offense. Other then Rios I think it's spot on, and Rios is due to come down to earth if for no other reason then he has never been able to draw a walk at any level and can't maintain a 380+ Batting average. I value Wells more then they do but they do give him a 59% chance to improve and a 26% chance to break out (stats I didn't give for each player) so they do admit Wells could do far better then their projection. Now for the pitchers.

-Gary-

[Doc Wattson]

The only new stat here is Stuff. It's a combined metric like EQA where it encomeses everything from K/BB rations, HR rates, and more. It's more importent for projecting players entering the majors and their prime then established pitchers since veterans have show that can do with their "stuff" while players learning might still find better ways to use their "stuff".

1) R. Halladay - IP: 184 WHIP: 1.15 ERA: 3.31 Stuff: 23 VORP: 45.3 Age: 29

For nearly 900 inning, Doc Halladay has been one of the game's most dominate pitchers. Averaged out, that's just shy of 180 innings of 3.16 ERA fir the past five seasons. While most teams would be happy to get that from any pitcher, Halladay holds the promose of much more. He's shown pitch efficiency reminiscent of Greg Maddux at his best, and as a result, can soak up innings. Heck, in barely more then half a season, Halladay was the third best picher in the AL, as measured by SNLVAR (ed. Support Nutral League Value Above Replacment, it's like VORP). We know you've heard this a million times, but if he can stay healthy he's worth ten wins over a replacement-level pitcher. He's a key player on a team that desperatly needs high-end performance from its best talent.

2) A.J Burnett - IP: 201 WHIP: 1.29 ERA: 3.76 Stuff: 23 VORP: 39.6 Age: 29

One of the most sought-after free agents in a weak class, Burnett got the big wampum from teh Blue Jays, signing for five years and $55 million dollars, also known as "Dreifort Money." But for being briefly sideline by some elbow inflammation, Burnett stayed healthy for a change and had one of his strongest campaigns. Other than his history of ill health, Burnett's fall clashes with management after a rough month were troubling-time has proved Burnett right about the Marlins being mismanaged, but management wasn't the cause of his 5.93 ERA in September. Finally, as with all pitchers exiting the DH-free league and a friendly ballpark, at least half a run of ERA will be lost in translation.

3) J. Towers - IP: 180.3 WHIP: 1.31 ERA: 4.44 Stuff: 6 VORP: 23.4 Age: 29

Tower's long outstanding skill, the thing that keeps him in clover, is that minuscule walk rate. Every now and then a Brad Radke turns in a sub-4.00 ERA, but that kind of performance repeats about as often as "Two and a Half Men" deserves an Emmy. Pitchers like Towers don't overpower hitters, so they challenge them to put the ball in play and rely heavily on their defenses. With pitchers generally unable to exert that much control over where the ball goes, this strategy doesn't always pay off over an extended period of time. Sometimes their defense turn in a particularly great year for them, but like the vagaries of getting run support, these things come and go, and a pitcher like Towers can't count on that kind of assistance year after year.

4) T. Lilly - IP: 137.7 WHIP: 1.42 ERA: 4.81 Stuff: 6 VORP: 13.2 Age: 30

Lilly's walk rate increased for the fourth year in a row, throw in higher hit and HR rates, and perhaps most fundamentally, an extended bout of bicep tendinitis, and presto, his ERA ballooned by a run and a half. He should be able to bounce back and prove 160-180 innings of league average pitching, not a bad output from a fourth or fifth starter. Lilly is going to have to perform well to hold off the crowd of young pitching in the system; if the Jays are out of it by the end of July, he'll be in demand at the trading deadline.

5) G. Chacin - IP: 168.3 WHIP: 1.43 ERA: 4.69 Stuff: 8 VORP: 17.6 Age: 25

Chacin's improvement over the past two seasons is being attributed to the addition of a particularly sharp cut fastball. The most awkward looking delivery this side of late-night Comedy Central stand-up didn't hurt, either. Still, that kind of shtick doesn't usually work more then once, leading to speculation that Chacin may struggle in his sophomore season. His peripherals have always been middling at best. Expect to hear the phrase "refression to the mean" a lot, at least from us.

C) B.J. Ryan - IP: 72.3 WHIP: 1.12 ERA: 2.61 Stuff: 39 VORP: 23.9 Age: 30

Ryan will be a much richer man in 2006 thanks toa season that vaulted him directly into the top rank of closers. Though it was his first full season in that role, the peripheral numbers were so dominating that he was assured to be treated as a front-line closer in salary negotiations. A season like Ryan's 2005 was worth about $8 million, objectively, to an average team. The Blue Jays contract of $47 million over five years only makes sense if Ryan continues to perform at this level for the duration of the deal, and the average salaries continue to increase the way they have over the last 15 years - at 8% inflation, it comes to $8 million per year in current value. Expecting a 30 year old to repeat his best-ever season five more times, however, is not a good strategy.


I agree with all their pitcher break downs but Towers, I think he is worse then that. Baseball prospectus predicted the Blue Jays to be slightly above 500 and 3rd in the east, exactly what they are doing now.

-Gary-

[stormFury]

LOL INDIANS LOST AGAIN 10-7... THIS IS RIDICULOUS. How do you lose a series to the worst team in baseball? SADFACE

[SkifF]

Nice scouting reports Doc, and I agree with what you said about Towers....the man is god awful and really has no business as a starting pitcher in MLB. However in the end its up to the players, not the scouting report to decide how the season goes, at the same time though I will also agree, chances are pretty good that the Jays will end up 3rd in the east.

Something you have to realize though is that Jays fans havn't really had much to cheer for since '93. Although the Jays probably won't win the World Series this year, the team shows promise, and on top of that the managment is putting money into the team, something we havn't seen since the 90's. There's also money going into the upkeep of Skydome which shows that the owners do care about the team and they do care about putting asses in the seats. The combination of these things makes it exciting for Jays fans, not just now but for the future too.

[Doc Wattson]

I understand its excited but money poorly spent in long term contracts can keep a team from winning as much as anything. You can just spend money and win. A few years from now when potentiall AJ Burnett and Ryan are average pitchers, or maybe not playing when it comes to Burnett, they will have $19 million tied up in those two plaeyrs per year. That's $19 million on two players that aren't making a difference they can't spend elswhere. I don't know what their current payroll is but I would guess it is under $100 million, if so that means two players takes up roughly 20% of their payroll who won't be helping the team win.

-Gary-

[SkifF]

Well time wil tell on that, and we'll have to wait and see what happens. Another thing to consider in MLB is that that amount of money you spend does not gaurantee a World Series, as the Yankee's found out (and I don't mean to pick on the Yakee's....honest!) a few years back when they got beat by the Marlins who had 1/3 the salary as the Yanks.

I guess what I'm saying is, although those guys may be tieing up cash down the road, if your team is playing well as a WHOLE, then money won't matter. There's always room for the lower paid guys to play above what's expected of them.

[Doc Wattson]

What the Marlins did is what teams like Oakland does. When you call up a rookie you have 5 years of arbiration years for them which means cheap labor. The marlins get rid of their players become to expensive. The Marlins weren't playing above their heads, they did a good job of building within their orginization to get cheap labor.

Money gives you mainly two advantages. One, you can keep your own talent. Teams like the A's can't afford to keep their own players once they get past arbiration. The Yankees never had to worry about Jeter or Rivera leaving. Two, you can make mistakes on other people's talents. When most teams sign a free agent for a ton of money and it doesn't pan out they don't have the resources to make up for it. A team like the Yankees can sign a Jaret Wright and Pavano and eat the hit, even sign another pitchers. A team like the Blue Jays are in trouble if Ryan and AJ Burnett don't pan out, they don't have the resources to eat the hit.

Money just allows you to take chances. You stil need smart people to choose what chances are worth taking.

-Gary-

[SkUNk]

Doesn't matter because the White Sox will repeat.

[PeregrineFalcon]

It's true, but the Blue Jays are a very overrated team.

Red Sox take East, Yankees, take wildcard, blue jays fight for staying above .500 towards the end of the season.

[Hawkeye]

It's true, but the Blue Jays are a very overrated team.

Red Sox take East, Yankees, take wildcard, blue jays fight for staying above .500 towards the end of the season.


Lies all of them!!1...... i need a shower